The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.637 | 0.914 | 0.834 | 0.732 |
| cor | 0.991 | 0.990 | 0.984 | 0.991 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.989 | 1.007 | 0.982 | 0.992 |
| KGE | 0.985 | 0.986 | 0.976 | 0.989 |
| amplitude_mae | 1.032 | 1.028 | 1.952 | 1.091 |
| maximum_difference | 1.486 | 1.257 | 1.444 | 1.435 |
| sign_correlation | 0.888 | 0.841 | 0.912 | 0.888 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.807 | 0.795 | 0.706 | 0.828 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.055 | 0.699 | 0.087 | 0.457 |
| acf_mae | 0.018 | 0.045 | 0.027 | 0.030 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.010 | 0.014 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97