The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm
mae 0.637 0.914 0.834 0.732
cor 0.991 0.990 0.984 0.991
ratio_of_sd 0.989 1.007 0.982 0.992
KGE 0.985 0.986 0.976 0.989
amplitude_mae 1.032 1.028 1.952 1.091
maximum_difference 1.486 1.257 1.444 1.435
sign_correlation 0.888 0.841 0.912 0.888
extreme_correlation 0.807 0.795 0.706 0.828
qqplot_mae 0.055 0.699 0.087 0.457
acf_mae 0.018 0.045 0.027 0.030
extremogram_mae 0.017 0.013 0.010 0.014

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97